Can injured teams overcome and cover?


Betting on the NBA can get a bit overwhelming throughout the season as there are games every day, and there is just a lot to follow throughout the season and enter every night – spreads, over / unders, injuries, etc.

But you can count on numberFire to help you. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects the games to see how often certain bet lines are coming in, and you can track the movement of the lines in the games and compare the odds in the oddsFire section of the site.

Where does our algorithm, power rankings and betting trends identify the value of tonight’s matches? (All ratings from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat

I know it sounds weird, but our model loves the Miami Heat tonight despite being without Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and PJ Tucker.

He rates their spread (+1.5) and moneyline (-102) as four star suggestions. This means that he recommends a bet of four units. We can naturally narrow that down a bit if we’re worried, but there is some promising data for Miami despite all of these injuries.

They’ve played 244 minutes this season without those three aforementioned players, minutes that qualify as medium to high leverage (i.e. no waste) situations, via PBPStats. Their net score in this sample is +0.3.

It won’t blow you away. I understand.

But paired with the Indiana Pacers‘data, that’s pretty cool. Their net score without waste in matches with Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon is only +0.8.

Considering all of this, my model also has the Heat as a lightweight favorite, so taking the points works here.

Detroit Pistons vs New York Knicks

The list of injuries in this game between the Detroit Pistons and the New York Knicks is longer than a seven year old’s list to Santa Claus (nailed down).

With this, the numberFire model sits on the side of the Knicks with both the spread (-7.0) and the moneyline (-300).

Our model here considers the Knicks to have a 78.6% chance of winning, surpassing their winning odds (75.0%). The expected return is 4.9%, which puts it in two-star territory, given the high probability of winning.

My model considers the gap here as 9.5 rather than 7.0, so he prefers the Knicks at home as well.

The Pistons are only 2-12 on the road with an abysmal differential of -11.6 points. Now the Knicks are just 5-10 at home with a -5.0 points differential, but it’s still quite a gap.

Of the 25 games most comparable to this one in our historical database, teams representing the Knicks have won 80.0%. They hedged 52.0% (with an unusually high push rate of 12.0%).

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks

This is one of the best overnight betting spots, according to the numberFire algorithm.

He sided with the Dallas Mavericks’ spread (-1.5) and moneyline (-120), calling them three and four star recommendations, respectively.

Wait, even without Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis? Yeah.

In trash-free situations without these two, the Mavericks have a net rating of +6.5.

Minnesota Timberwolves, without Anthony Edwards and Patrick Beverley but with Karl-Anthony Towns, have a net non-garbage score of +2.2 (in just 79 minutes) while allowing for an effective goal percentage of 53.8% and a high quality of shot (0.54 – essentially their effective goal percentage deemed authorized).

My model considers the spread here to be 4.0 points in favor of Dallas and sees them as 62.4% likely to win.


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